torstaina, joulukuuta 07, 2006

LII: Sarvesta kiinni

- USA:n YK-lähettiläs John Boltonin viimeinen tahto tehtävässään näkyy toteutuvan kun YK aikoo ryhtyä sotasyylliseksi Somaliassa. Se on englanniksi: UN backs peace force for Somalia.
- Eli nyt on yhtä hätä siellä kuin Irakissakin puolustaa pyhää hallintoa, jonka johdossa on omia äijiä. Tärkeämpää se on kuin jokin maan vakaus, jos maa on väärien ihmisten käsissä.
- Somalia on nyt pääkaupunki Mogadishua myöten, Baidoan alueen hallintaa lukuunottamatta, islamistien hallinnassa ja Union of Islamist Courts on vakiinnuttanut suurimman osan maata sharian lakien alaisuuteen. Voi kauhiaa, ei näy jalkapalloa ja suosittu khat-huumekin on kielletty, että se länsimaisesta vapaudesta.
- Somaliassa toimii nyt hallituksen tukena 6000-8000 etiopialaista sotilasta ja islamistien puolella 2000 eritrealaista sotilasta. YK:n päätöslauselma oikeuttaa tuomaan maahan hallituksen tueksi seitsemän itä-Afrikan maan yhteensä 8000 sotilaan turvajoukot puoleksi vuodeksi ja samalla hallitukselle tarjotaan jälleen aseapua.
- Islamistit pitävät moista sotatilan julistamisena ja puolustavat omia oikeuksiaan aseellisesti. Etiopian ja Eritrean pelätään ottavan omissa kiistoissaan Somalian sotatantereekseen ja al-Qaedan rooli kummittelee myös taustalla alueen hallinnasta kinasteltaessa.

4 kommenttia:

Juha kirjoitti...

Bush ponders next Iraq move
By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs correspondent, BBC News website


The question now is how much of the Iraq Study group's plan President Bush will implement.
At a news conference with the British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Washington - the first time Mr Bush had commented in detail on the report - the president said that a "new approach" was needed in Iraq. It is "bad there", he accepted.


The US president says he wants time to consider all Iraq reports
But he did not commit himself in advance of three other studies that are coming his way from the Pentagon, the State Department and his National Security Council.

He did however give some hints, and laid down some parameters. These can be matched against the study group's proposals to see how far he might go.

The study group's main ideas were:


To change the role of US troops from combat to training, thereby enabling a major draw-down by early 2008

To set milestones for the Iraqi government to reach, especially on national reconciliation

To launch a diplomatic initiative in the region in support of Iraq.
The first proposal is not that far out of line with current American thinking, though it goes well beyond the current gradualism of the US policy of handing over to Iraqi troops.

The problem for Mr Bush is that it sets a target date, which is fine for the next American presidential campaign in 2008, but which he has always rejected.

It was perhaps significant that he refused to be drawn on the date in his news conference but stressed instead that conditions on the ground would determine any withdrawal of troops.


The security situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate
And he repeated his battle cry: "Victory in Iraq is important," without actually saying that it was on the way.

So he is likely to accept the broad principle of the study group's plan but not the proposed practice.



Again, the second idea has been explored by the administration and tried to an extent. But what sanctions are available if the government fails to reach the milestones?

The US could hardly withdraw its military support unless open civil war erupted and it had little other choice. Again he avoided laying down rules in his public comments. Encouragement not punishment is the likely course.

A disguised surrender

William Kristol on the Iraq Study Group

As for the third, Mr Bush is hostile to Iran and Syria - and they to the US. While he might try something, it is doubtful if this will lead very far. He said as much, inviting both to join in but only on condition that they act in ways he regards as helpful.

As for the Israel/Palestine issue, it is now clear that Mr Blair has two objects in mind when he goes to the region. Both are aimed at unlocking the door to talks. The first is to get the release of the Israeli soldier held in Gaza and the second is to get a government of national unity among the Palestinians to lead negotiations.



Sceptics

Meanwhile, domestic sceptics are putting pressure on Mr Bush to resist going down the Iraq Study Group's path.

They feel the report had more to do with getting America out of Iraq than getting Iraq out of the war.

The right-wing backlash has already begun.

One of the leaders of the neo-conservative movement, William Kristol, called the report "a disguised surrender".

In an article in his magazine, the Weekly Standard, he said the report's proposal to draw down American combat forces by 2008 was much the same as those laid out previously by the Pentagon.

But he argued that it had not proved possible before and would not necessarily be possible in the future, even under the plan envisaged by the study group.

Misgivings

"The real recommendation of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study group is 'stay the course'. For this we waited nine months?" he wrote.

He added about President Bush: "Right now we can only applaud the president's courage and determination and his willingness to resist the pressures of those who would now sound the retreat."

Among the military there are misgivings about setting a target - and about relying on Iraq forces so quickly.

Retired General Barry McCaffrey, who fought during the 1991 Gulf War, said that while the principle of handing over to the Iraqis was correct, those US troops left behind as advisers might find themselves in danger. "They came up with a political thought but then got to tinkering with tactical ideas that in my view don't make any sense. This is a recipe for national humiliation," he said.



And some Iraqis fear that the report does not address Iraqi issues so much as American ones.

"It is a report to solve American problems, not to solve Iraqi problems," a leading Sunni politician was quoted as saying in the Washington Post.

Jouni kirjoitti...

ööö...mitä justus haluat tarkoittaa, pitäisikö jenkkien jäädä vai lähteä?. Ainoa oikea ratkaisu on, että jenkit lähtevät nopeassa aikataulussa ja lupaavat shiioille (enemmistö) tukensa. Ettei sunnit saa väärää viestiä aloittaakseen heti sisällissodan, viimeisten sotilaiden jättäessä Irakin maaperän, sillä senhän ne haluavat aloittaa ja varmaan aloittavatkin. Jenkeillä onkin siinä oikea kunnon pähkinä purtavaksi sillä shiia-johtoinen Irak on jo askeleen päässä Iranin valitsemasta suunnasta. Demokratiahan ei kuulunut tuon alueen luontaiseen kulttuuriin. Ei ole kuulunut, ei kuulu eikä tule kuulumaan. No ehkä tuhannen vuoden päästä. Kun täällä ollaan siirrytty harvainvaltaan tai diktatuuriin. Ehkä länsimäisen demokratian jatke tulee olemaan jonkinlainen monikansallisten korporaatioiden hallinnoima maailmankansalaisvelvollisuus, missä kansallisvaltiot ovat menettäneet statuksensa ja ihmiset käyvät toimeentulonsa eteen armotonta taistelua.

Juha kirjoitti...

President George W Bush will delay his announcement of possible changes to US policy in Iraq until after the new year, the White House has confirmed.
The speech - which had been expected before Christmas - was "not ready yet", White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

The news comes as Mr Bush held a second day of talks with top US and Iraqi officials on the Iraq issue.

The talks follow a recent report on US policy in Iraq that called for urgent action to stop "a slide towards chaos".

Our objective is to help the Iraqi government deal with the extremists and the killers, and support the vast majority of Iraqis who... who want peace

US President George W Bush


In pictures: Baghdad bombing

The high-level review by the Iraq Study Group (ISG) published last week said the current US strategy of staying the course was no longer viable.

It offered no hard timetable for a pullout of US forces, but said combat troops could withdraw by early 2008.

The report's 79 recommendations included holding direct talks with Iran and Syria.

On Tuesday, at least 70 people were killed and more than 230 injured in Baghdad after a suicide attacker set off a large bomb in the capital.

Correspondents say the blast appears to be the latest violence in a spiral of sectarian attacks.

'New alliance'

Mr Snow said that President Bush's televised address on the direction of US policy in Iraq "is not going to happen until the new year".


Iraq's vice-president is the highest-ranking Sunni politician in Iraq

"He decided that, frankly, it's not ready yet," the spokesman said, insisting it did not mean that Mr Bush was planning any major last-minute revisions.

With opinion polls suggesting the US public's dissatisfaction with Iraq policy is getting worse, the speech is sure to be one of the most important of Mr Bush's presidency, the BBC's James Coomarasamy reports from Washington.

On Tuesday, President Bush presided over a videoconference with his senior military commanders in Iraq, including outgoing Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his successor Robert Gates.

Mr Bush also met Iraq's Sunni Vice-President Tariq al-Hashimi.

"Our objective is to help the Iraqi government deal with the extremists and the killers, and support the vast majority of Iraqis who are reasonable, who want peace," Mr Bush said.

For his part, Mr Hashimi - who has lost both his brother and his sister to the insurgency - praised President Bush's determination.

He said that while times were hard in Iraq, there was a "light in the corridor".

Mr Hashimi is the latest in a series of Iraqi leaders to meet Mr Bush - last week he held talks with a senior Shia politician.

Iraqi politicians say several groups, including the party led by Mr Hashimi, are discussing a new alliance designed to isolate the movement of the anti-American Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr.

Anonyymi kirjoitti...

Ysn r pir b xxx, hot xxx movies. Nsu f, ezt cjouwt|wcr ptqfdtz s yz tj.